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Let's disect the hyped report (https://www.stiftung-evz.de/fileadmin/user_upload/EVZ_Uploads/Handlungsfelder/Handeln_fuer_Menschenrechte/Antisemitismus_und_Antiziganismus/antisemitism_west_Europe_Report-GERMANY.pdf) a little. I will try to keep it as neutral as possible to trigger as many people as possible.

The hypothesis: Right-Wingers commit most of the criminal offences against Jews.

The first thing to notice is the documents intimidating length of 134 pages. I guess most won't read it.

In the table (extracted from the document) it is claimed that about 94 % of all criminal offences against Jews are comitted by Right-wing offenders.

The first thing I typically do is normalizing the data by cohort size. According to Wikipedia, we have about 4.55 million Muslims in Germany.  At 82.67 million Germans, Muslims constitute about 5.5 % of the German population. In 2014, 13 % of all criminal offences against Jews were comitted by foreigners. In 2015 it was about 5.7 %. No numbers were givin for the following years. Let's take the average of both. Thats 9.35 %. How many of those were Muslims? hard to tell, since we have no data on that. If we just go by the numbers (foreigners vs. Muslims), about 50 % of the crimes has been commited by Muslims. Thats 4.675 %. A group that constitutes 5.5 % of the population committed 4.675 % of the crimes against Jews. According to the Jews themselves, a large portion of it was actual violence. No sign that Right-Wingers are more criminal towards Jews here. On the contrary, the Jewish council recommends not wearing a Kippa in public (https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/zeitgeschehen/2018-04/zentralrat-der-juden-josef-schuster-kippa-tragen-grossstaedte-warnung). Its probably because of all the insults (not), not baucause of the violence, as we will see later.

Sadly, it isn't specified what exactly a criminal offence against Jews exactly is. But let's see, at least they cited some sources. Sadly 2 out of 3 links are down. The Tagesspiegel-link is still up though (https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/straftaten-gegen-juden-wie-antisemitisch-ist-deutschland/13593906.html).

There certainly has to be some newer information. In https://faktenfinder.tagesschau.de/hintergrund/antisemitismus-147.html, the truth value of the proposition is "analyzed". One interesting point raised is as follows:

"The Jewish community in Germany overwhelmingly admits that most actual violence against Jews is comitted by Muslims (81 %)"

Thats interesting. So actual Jews say that most of the violence is caused by Muslims. I deduce that we might have a problem with our underlying definitions.

Let's investigate what a crime is by the definition of those who collect the data at the example of Berlin 2017:

18 Attacks (1.9 %),
23 Threats (2.4 %),
42 Damage to property (4.4 %),
679 Cases of "harmful behaviour" (71 %) - 325 online (34 %)
185 Cases of Propaganda (19.5 %)

Most of the criminal offences seem to be insult and propagand (90.5 %).

So in conclusion:

- Most of the criminal offences agains Jews are Insults and propaganda
- Muslims commit criminal offences against Jews at a higher rate than Right-Wingers.
- In total, most of the criminal offences against Jews are commited by By Germans, because the majority of people in Germany is german.
- According to Jews, most actual violence against them is commited by Muslims.
- Statistical methods aren't perfect. Lefties think that there is more crime against Jews, Righties think that institutions polish up data. No idea who is right. Probably both, but the degree varies.
Reposted fromFlau Flau

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